In February 2026, Anthropic argued that Claude Code could reduce the cost of COBOL modernization. We tested it. Across four AWS Card Demo programs and an independent Swimm benchmark on Medicare COBOL, the same five failure patterns appeared consistently — silent data corruption, missing business logic, architectural substitution, unverifiable output, and fabricated values. These are not edge cases. They are structural consequences of how large language models work — and they explain why COBOL translation requires deterministic tooling, not statistical approximation.
